TRANSLATION PRACTICE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF TRENDLINE ANALYSIS
The misused
Trendlines are one of the simplest and most useful indicators in Technical Analysis. They also happen to be one of the most misused.
"One of the biggest mistakes made by beginners and professionals alike, is inconsistently defining and drawing the trendline. To be useful, the trendline must accurately reflect the definition of the trend."
(Victor Sperandeo)
The Classic Trendline
Like manv other Technical Analyses, trendline analysis is considered an "art" rather than an exact science. This does not mean. however, that a trendline can be drawn "iust anvwhere". Certain conditions must be followed in order to enforce the usefulness of this tool. We will discuss some of the standards maintained by trendline users in the market place today and look at the means of determining where and how trendlines should be drawn. A trendline requires you to ioin three price extremes. This means you need to join three low points when the market is in an up-trend or three high points when it is in a down-trend. Joining less than three points — for instance, joining two, indicates a tentative trendline that mav become valid but still requires confirmation from future price action. When ioinine the three price extremes, the trendline must not cut across any other price data — otherwise it is not a valid trendline.
Trendline Signals
Having drawn the trendline. vou are then able to derive
three essential clues. If prices breach the trendline this indicates a change in the rate at which the market is changing direction. It also indicates that the market may not continue in the same direction it had in the past. However, it does not indicate an immediate change from an up-trend to a down-trend, as many tend to think. It points instead to a change from the existing up or down trend to a sideways trend or a congested market. If any part of the trendline is breached, that trendline should be redrawn or else considered invalid. (See Diagram 1) The steeper the trendline, the less likely it is that the trend will hold. Manv traders use the principle that the steepness of
Vocabulary
i significance — çíà÷åíèå
i .misused — èñïîëüçóåìûé íåïðàâèëüíî
inconsistant — íåïîñëåäîâàòåëüíûé, ïðîòèâîðå÷èâûé
ý: enforce — ðåàëèçîâàòü
i: extreme — êðàéíÿÿ òî÷êà
å 'tentative - óñëîâíûé, òðåáóþùèé ïîäòâåðæäåíèÿ
ai to derive — ïîëó÷àòü, èçâåùàòü
è: 'clue - êëþ÷ (èíôîðìàöèÿ) ê ðåøåíèþ ïðîáëåì
the trendline should be 45 degress — but this is a subjective view derived primarily from the work of Gann. Trend channels are often drawn bv traders to identify areas that are overbought (up-trends) or oversold (down-trends).
as 'magnitude
— âåëè÷èíà
The Wyckoff Trendline
The principles and conditions that make up the "classical trendline" are in many respects a variation of Wyckoffs original findings on this subject. Wyckoff included the following conditions:
Firstly, he argued that a trendline requires you to join only two price extremes as opposed to three. He qualified this by specifying that the two price extremes had to be consecutive and of similar magnitude. {See Diagram 2) This condition of similar magnitude to validate a trendline is now disregarded by most traders using the Classic Trendline conditions. It is however, an important measure of the change in trend. For instance, if a Wyckoff trendline is breached, the concept of similar magnitude indicates the degree of the change in trend of that particular time frame.
I 0:
to disregard — íå ïðèíèìàòü âî âíèìàíèå
ë to recover
- âîññòàíàâëèâàòü
A second concept included by Wyckoff in his analysis of trendlines, was the idea of a trendline that is "recovered". In other words, the concept that a breach of a trendline does not always automatically render that trendline invalid. Diagram 4 provides us with a great example of this. Market prices break this trendline but then continue to close consecutively higher and closer toward the trendline. Eventually prices break back above the trendline, retest the trendline and then continue up in the direction of the original trend. (See Diagram 3)
Trendlines are one of the most popular tools used to analyse prince action in trending markets. They alert you to changes in market direction and provide you with the valuable signals to buy and sell. The information they give you can be interpreted in an infinite number of ways, but armed with the basis principles, you can work effectively with this analysis and eventually add your own personal touch.
e eventually
— â êîíöå êîíöîâ
ë touch
— ñâîå îòíîøåíèå
